Bloomberg just published an article Silicon
Valley Decides It’s Just Too Hard to Build a Car, by Keith Naughton , Alex
Webb , and Mark Bergen, October 25, 2016. That make Elon Musk’s achievements
with Tesla Motors that much more amazing! Tesla is a Silicon Valley company,
and Tesla is producing amazing cars. The article points out that the Silicon
Valley companies can’t get the real-world driving data that the conventional
car companies have. And conversely the conventional car companies can’t hire
the software experts to build the systems needed for the autonomous cars of the
future because Silicon Valley firms are more attractive places to work. Yet
attempts at partnerships between companies in the two industries remain stalled.
Meanwhile, Teslas have driven over 100
million miles with Autopilot active, so Tesla is gathering far more
detailed data than the conventional car companies. By contrast Google’s
much-touted self-driving car program has driven 1.5 million miles over its
entire history – Teslas log 2.6 million miles a day on Autopilot. And Google
says Google’s
Robo-Cars Hit 2M Miles, Confirm Driving Is Dadgum Tricky. That’s why our proposal is to have Autonomous
Vehicles run in enclosed Autonomous-Ways, or A-Ways, excluding human-driven
vehicles, pedestrians, animals, debris, and weather. A-Ways greatly simplify
the requirements on the autonomous driving system, and greatly improve the
safety – in 94% ± 2.2% of crashes the driver was the critical reason, NHTSA
DOT HS 812 115, February 2015. And even better, the A-Way can provide power
directly to the vehicles, essentially eliminating batteries, which are such a
drag on electric vehicles.
Having worked in Bell Labs, which at the time was part of
the largest private company on earth, AT&T, and subsequently in several
startups, I have a perspective on the challenges facing the conventional car
companies. I even directed modeling efforts as part of studies leading up to
the AT&T divestiture in 1984. Bell Labs was a great place to work back in
“the day” but now startups are far more fun and satisfying.
My view is that it is incredibly difficult for a large
company to make the transition to drastically different technologies. On March
28, 2008, I was in Sacramento, California to make a statement at the California
Air Resources Board meeting on the Proposed Amendments to the California Zero
Emission Vehicle Regulations. After the session I was being interviewed on
video, and I predicted that the big 3 car manufacturers would go bankrupt, as I
had been predicting quietly for several years – the interviewer promptly left,
presumably because he thought I was a crank. Thirteen months later I was proved
right, ok 2 out of 3 isn’t bad, and Ford only dodged the bullet by presciently
mortgaging all its assets in 2006. My comments weren’t based on the economy,
that was just the trigger, but that the companies had ignored the changes
taking place in the car industry, especially the need for higher quality, and the
difficulty in changing a large company.
Now I predict that the conventional car companies will have
great difficulty adjusting to the combination of autonomous driving, and the
smaller numbers of vehicles due to sharing. I don’t know whether they will go
bankrupt or just fade away to bit players. All those companies are making
claims they will have autonomous cars by a variety of unrealistic dates, yet
have no real experience. I’ve been managing research and development for my
entire career, and built two high tech companies, and Tesla is the only one
doing it right, IMHO.
Tesla tries things in the real world, and then rapidly
modifies their system, based on the new information. That rapid cycling is
essential for building complex systems. The conventional car companies are
still stuck on annual model cycles, which might be appropriate when you are
just bending metal, but don’t apply to high tech systems. Look at how long it
has taken the car companies to come clean on the airbag and other disasters,
and how long it takes them to actually fix the problems – this is a recipe for
doom and oblivion.
Chevy now says the Bolt won’t be production limited to
30,000, and they could meet demand of 50,000
cars per year, reasoning that the annual sales of electric vehicles in the
US so far is barely 30,000. Did they somehow miss the 276,000
people who signed up for the Tesla Model 3 in the first two days? Or perhaps they are siding with the naysayers on whether Tesla can meet the demand, despite the videos of their
automated production line? Or are they conceding that they can’t compete with
Tesla? Go Elon!
